China's exports are leaping to the top of the world or facing greater pressure on trade protection

Although Germany has not yet released the full-year export data for 2009, it is already clear that China has surpassed Germany to become one of the top global exporters. This shift in trade dynamics, however, has not brought much joy to China, as it now faces a growing wave of trade protectionist measures from various countries around the world. According to preliminary figures from the German Federal Statistical Office, in the first 11 months of 2009, Germany’s exports reached approximately $1.05 trillion, while China's exports for the same period were slightly higher at $1.07 trillion. Analysts predicted that Germany’s full-year exports would reach around $1.17 trillion, but China’s actual exports for the year are estimated to have exceeded $1.2 trillion. One of the main sources of trade tension is the United States. On January 6, the U.S. Department of Commerce imposed anti-dumping duties ranging from 43% to 289% on wire mesh pallets imported from China. Industry experts viewed this as the beginning of a new wave of trade disputes between the two nations. In 2009, the U.S. ramped up its trade protectionist actions against China, including high anti-dumping tariffs on oil pipelines, tires, seamless steel pipes, barium chloride, and ironing boards. More such measures are expected to follow. Legal experts, such as Roger Shaglin, who has been involved in several U.S.-China trade cases, believe that 2010 will see a significant increase in anti-dumping and countervailing lawsuits. Even Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman has expressed support for U.S. trade protectionism, suggesting that a broader trade confrontation with China might be necessary. Chinese economists strongly criticize these protectionist moves, calling them illogical. Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist at Galaxy Securities, argues that the U.S. trade deficit with China is largely self-inflicted. He points out that the U.S. reluctance to export high-tech goods to China is a major contributing factor to the imbalance. The European Union is also intensifying its trade barriers against Chinese products. In December 2009, the EU extended the anti-dumping duty on Chinese leather shoes by another 15 months. The EU has also launched investigations into steel wire rods, seamless steel tubes, sodium gluconate, steel cables, and aluminum alloy wheels from China. Since November 2008, China has faced over 100 trade protectionist measures, accounting for more than a third of all such measures globally. According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, in 2009, over 100 trade disputes involving Chinese products occurred, with a total value of about $12 billion—double the amount from the previous year. Developing countries like Argentina, India, Brazil, and Mexico have also initiated anti-dumping and countervailing investigations on Chinese goods, targeting products such as methyl chloride, centrifugal pumps, screw compressors, and hypodermic syringes. Global trade data shows that discriminatory trade policies are becoming increasingly common. According to the UK Trade Research Institute, the number of such measures far exceeds free trade agreements, with a 6:1 ratio in favor of protectionism. Over 90% of global trade is now subject to some form of protectionist measure. These trade barriers have had a significant impact on China’s industries. Wei Yafei, director of the China Leather Association, noted that since the EU imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese shoes in 2006, China’s shoe exports to the EU dropped by about 40 million pairs, leading to the loss of around 20,000 jobs in the sector. Trade protectionism also leads to higher prices for consumers in developed countries. Lin Yifu, vice president of the World Bank, emphasized that restricting Chinese exports would not benefit American consumers or reduce the U.S. trade deficit. He pointed out that importing from other countries would only result in higher costs. Zhang Junsheng, an expert at the University of International Business and Economics, believes that as China’s export volume grows, so do the external risks. He notes that China’s low labor costs will remain a competitive advantage for the foreseeable future, and high-value products are unlikely to dominate exports in the short term. "Only through industrial restructuring can China reduce its exposure to trade protectionism," Zhang said. "But it will never completely disappear—it will always be a challenge."

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