Can gold catch up and lose the "last life-saving straw"?

As the US dollar continued to rebound, the 90-point mark closed, non-US currencies were under pressure; and investors' demand for gold fell, causing the price of gold to fall, setting the lowest closing price in two weeks; however, the expectation of strong growth in crude oil boosted oil prices Eventually closed up.

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· Due to the rise in the US dollar exchange rate, the demand for gold fell, and the price of gold fell on Thursday, hitting the lowest closing price in two weeks, eventually closing at $1316.2 per ounce, a drop of 0.66%; Silver US February import price index month The rate was 0.4%, better than the expected 0.2%; the US New York Fed manufacturing index recorded 22.5 in March, far exceeding expectations and the previous value; economic data indicates that the market’s Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates next week is almost Not affected. The Fed’s probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.5%-1.75% in March this year rose to 90.2%. The strong economic data and the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations put pressure on gold prices.

· Although the US dollar continued to rebound on Thursday, there are signs that global demand for crude oil is growing and oil prices have risen for the second consecutive day, but concerns about rising US shale oil production have limited oil price increases. WTI crude oil closed up 0.43% to $61.19 per barrel; Brent oil closed up 0.17% to $65.01 per barrel. The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for global oil demand growth this year by 100,000 barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day on Thursday. However, in January, OECD commercial crude oil inventories rose to 2.871 billion barrels, the first time in seven months. Growth; and IEA expects US crude oil production to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day to over 11 million barrels per day. However, the Israeli Prime Minister said that US President Trump will most likely withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal in May, and any action against Iran could put pressure on oil prices.

· The US dollar index rose 0.41% on Thursday to 90.125, but its market outlook was further suppressed by the “TongRumen”. The tension between the UK and Russia put pressure on the pound, and finally the pound/dollar fell 0.19% to 1.3935. Gradually turn to the Bank of England's policy meeting and EU leaders' summit next week; the United States may impose a high "double anti-tax" on aluminum foil imported from China. Under the influence of increased trade tension, the Australian dollar/US dollar fell nearly 1% on Thursday. , closing at 0.7799; Mexico said that Canada and Mexico have the ability to reach an agreement on NAFTA, this statement caused the Canadian dollar to fall under pressure, the dollar / Canadian dollar hit a high of 1.3067, refreshed last year since July high, and finally rose 0.74% to 1.3051.

Gold's two consecutive days of falling bulls can seize the "last straw" of trade disputes

Due to the rise in the US dollar exchange rate, the demand for gold fell, and the price of gold fell on Thursday, hitting the lowest closing price in two weeks, eventually closing at $1316.2 per ounce, down 0.66%; silver fell 0.91% to $16.395/ ounce.

Data released on Thursday showed that the US import price index recorded a monthly rate of 0.4% in February, better than the expected 0.2%; the US New York Fed manufacturing index recorded 22.5 in March, far exceeding expectations and the previous value; but the US March The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index recorded 22.3, slightly worse than expected. Economic data suggests that the market's expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates next week are almost unaffected. According to CME "Federal Watch", the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.5%-1.75% in March this year rose to 90.2%. The strong economic data and the Fed's interest rate hike expectations put pressure on gold prices.

However, the tensions surrounding the possible outbreak of the trade war are still lingering, providing some support for the price of gold. The US International Trade Commission announced on Thursday that it decided that aluminum foil imported from China is hurting US producers. However, Carl Nani, chief market analyst at consulting firm Insignia Consultants, said the current news is too confusing, the war between the UK and Russia, the land trade scandal in Japan, and the uncertainty of Trump’s government policy. People and investors are nervous and people are more inclined to sit in cash and not move.

Strong demand for crude oil is expected to increase oil prices, and the "Iron Nuclear Agreement" may put pressure on oil prices?

Despite the dollar's continued rebound on Thursday, there are signs that global demand for crude oil is growing and oil prices have risen for the second consecutive day, but concerns about rising US shale oil production have limited oil price increases. WTI crude oil closed up 0.43% to $61.19 per barrel; Brent oil closed up 0.17% to $65.01 per barrel.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for global oil demand growth this year by 100,000 barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day on Thursday. However, in January, OECD commercial crude oil inventories rose to 2.871 billion barrels, the first time in seven months. Growth; and IEA expects US crude oil production to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day to over 11 million barrels per day. After the release of the monthly report, the US and the two oils fell for a short time, but then rebounded.

The IEA believes that strong growth in demand should help offset the impact of US shale oil production growth, making this year's crude oil market largely balanced. However, some market participants have warned that the growth of crude oil supply – mainly the growth of US crude oil production – still poses risks to the prospect of a balanced market.

In addition, according to US media AXIOS cited two people familiar with the meeting, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told his national security cabinet that US President Trump will most likely withdraw from the Iranian nuclear agreement in May. People familiar with the matter also believe that the appointment of Pompeo, who holds a hawkish position on Iran, is the signal that the United States will take action. Finance Network, station Forexlive believes that any action against Iran may put pressure on oil prices.

The 90 mark on the US dollar close is threatened by the "through the door" to suppress the non-US currency's fall and the Australian is crowned as "unlucky"

On Thursday, the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 90.125; EUR/USD fell 0.5% to 1.2304; GBP/USD fell 0.19% to 1.3935; AUD/USD fell 0.98% to 0.7799; USD/JPY fell slightly by 0.01%. Reported at 106.31; USD/CAD rose 0.74% to 1.3051.

Although the US dollar closed higher on Thursday, the continued fermentation of “TongRumen” threatened to suppress the US dollar. On Thursday, the US Treasury announced a list of sanctions against Russia, including several Russian companies and individuals. US Senate Democratic leader Schumer said that Trump’s sanctions against Russia prove that the investigation by Special Prosecutor Muller is necessary. Recently, Muller asked the Trump Group to submit all documents related to Russia and related issues under investigation for the first time since the investigation of “TongRumen”.

The US International Trade Commission announced on Thursday that it decided that aluminum foil imported from China is hurting US producers. The US Department of Commerce will soon issue a high “double anti-tax” on aluminum foil imported from China. The anti-dumping tax rate is expected to range from 48.64% to 106.09%, and the countervailing duty ranges from 17.14% to 80.97%. Under the influence of increased trade tensions, the AUD/USD fell nearly 1% on Thursday.

According to Reuters, no new economic data was released on Thursday to influence the pound, but Russian President Vladimir Putin will respond to the British expulsion of diplomats and believe that the British position on the poison of the spy is "inappropriate." Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that Russia will soon expel British diplomats, and the tension between Britain and Russia has put pressure on the pound.

In addition, traders continue to focus on the Bank of England's policy meeting next week and the EU leaders summit. The market is increasingly worried that the UK and the EU will not be able to finalize the transitional arrangements at the March 22-23 summit, as the differences between the two sides have increased in recent days, and this result may cause the market to put a question mark on the Bank of England's expectation of a 25 basis point rate hike in May. .

The Mexican Minister of Economy said on Thursday that the election of the United States and Mexico means that the NAFTA negotiations must be completed by the end of April, otherwise it will not be reached until the end of the year. And must be prepared for NAFTA without the United States, Canada and Mexico have the ability to reach an agreement on NAFTA. This statement caused the Canadian dollar to fall under pressure on Thursday. The USD/CAD hit a high of 1.3067, which was the highest since July last year.

(Editor: Liu Xiaoman HF108)